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Hitt og þetta 31. janúar 2007

DJ EUROPEAN MORNING BRIEFING: Stocks Flat; Fed Outlook Key

DJIA 12523.31 +32.53 +0.26%
Nasdaq 2448.64 +7.55 +0.31%
S&P 500 1428.82 +8.20 +0.58%
FTSE 100 6242.00 +2.10 +0.03%
Xetra DAX 6788.23 +62.22 +0.93%
CAC40 5645.59 +25.89 +0.46%
Above are closing prices

Nikkei 225 17324.80 -165.30 -1.0%
Hang Seng 20430.55 -29.91 -0.15%
S&P/ASX 200 5757.70 -33.80 -0.6%
Taiwan Index 7699.64 -40.29 -0.5%
S.Korea Kospi 1359.53 -11.19 -0.8%
Dow Future 12557.0 -3.00 0.00%
NASDAQ Future 1788.00 -1,25 -0.1%
S&P Future 1433.25 -0.75 -0.1%

Above are as of 0550 GMT

USD/JPY 121.48-51 -0.12%
Range 121.74 - 121.50
EUR/USD 1.2964-68 -0.02%
Range 1.2974 - 1.2951
AUD/USD 0.7718-21 -0.01%
Range 0.7725 - 0.7714
GBP/USD 1.9621-25 -0.02%
Range 1.9636 - 1.9612
USD/CHF 1.2524-27 +0.07%
Range 1.6236 - 1.6220

USD/JPY 1M Vol Option Contract 7.30%/7.70%
EUR/USD 1M Vol Option Contract 5.82%/6.08%
AUD/USD 1M Vol Option Contract 7.10%/7.15%
GBP/USD 1M Vol Option Contract 6.55%/6.85%
USD/CHF 1M Vol Option Contract 6.40%/6.65%
Above are as of 0550 GMT vs NY close

2Y Tsy 99 26/32 +1/32 4.97% -1.7 BP
5Y Tsy 99 16/32 +2/32 4.86% -1.8 BP
10Y Tsy 98 2/32 +4/32 4.88% -1.7 BP
10Y JGB 1.7050 unchanged
Closing Treasury prices vs prior NY close

Asian Spot Gold $645.80 +$0.90 +0.1%
Comex Gold $646.40 +2.20 +0.3%
Brent Crude Oil $56.09 -$0.30 -0.5%
Above are as of 0530 GMT vs NY close

EUROPEAN OUTLOOK & US/ASIAN SUMMARIES
European shares are unlikely to make much headway at the open despite a higher close on Wall Street. Prices of government bonds are trying to tap technical advantages to extend gains ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserves rate announcement and gold is treading water until then. Oil is giving back some of its 5% gain from Tuesday.


STOCKS:

Investors in Europe are likely to sit tight, yet again, ahead of the Fed rate decision, with markets opening flat.

U.K. spreadbettor Cantor Index is calling the FTSE up 2 points at 6244, the DAX down 4 at 6784 and the CAC down 1 at 5644.

Shares of Corus Group remain in focus, with Indias Tata Steel Wednesday delivering a knockout bid of 608 pence a share, valuing the Anglo-Dutch steelmaker at GBP6.2 billion.

Wall Street stocks finished moderately higher Tuesday in an uneven session as optimism about the economy helped investors overcome some of their uneasiness about the Feds impending decision on interest rates.

"If the Fed feels the economy is strong enough on its own, it means corporate earnings this year will probably be better than people were expecting," said Alfred E. Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc.

The Conference Board, a business research group, said consumer confidence rose modestly in January as the job market remained strong. That report followed regional Fed reports on Monday showing manufacturing growth in the Midwest and Texas.

3M, considered a barometer of U.S. business health because of the products it sells, missed Wall Street expectations and its shares fell 5.4%.

"Fourth-quarter earnings are running 10.5 percent ahead of last year. Its a good increase, but weve been spoiled," Goldman said, noting that investors grew accustomed to higher double-digit earnings last year.

Japanese stocks were lower Wednesday morning on profit-taking as investors anxiously awaited quarterly earnings results. Sony fell on concerns over the sluggishness reported in earnings results Tuesday in the electronics makers new games console business, traders said.


FOREX:

The euro starts the European trading session lower against the dollar and yen, after a mixed showing against the two currencies on Tuesday. The euro has support at $1.2946 and at Y157.40.

The euros most notable move came when it retreated against the yen as European officials delivered more criticisms of what they see as an unfairly weak Japanese currency that is hurting European exporters.

German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said Tuesday that European leaders are becoming increasingly worried about the weakness of the yen. He said currency issues will be discussed at a February G7 meeting, chaired by Germany.

Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at FX Solutions, said the release of fourth quarter U.S. economic growth data Wednesday could give the dollar a rather substantial boost if it shows an expected re-accelaration.

The median estimate of 22 economists surveyed Monday by Dow Jones Newswires is for a pick up to a 3.0% annual rate for GDP growth from 2.0% in the prior quarter, while the chain-weighted price index is expected to have slowed to a 1.5% annual rate from 1.8% in the third quarter.


BONDS:

European government bonds prices are set to test still higher at the open, after gaining on Tuesday. Bunds gained from below-forecast German State inflation numbers, while gilts and short sterling rallied on the back of signs of cooling in the U.K. housing market.

Attention now turns to Wednesdays release of Januarys flash estimate of euro-zone inflation at 1000 GMT, as bond investors seek further guidance on the likelihood of another rate hike by the European Central Bank.

The Feds rate decision and statement will dominate bond trading when the U.S. opens Wednesday. Central bankers are universally seen maintaining their overnight target rate fixed at 5.25%, a rate thats been in place since last June.

The FOMC policy statement heralding this decision is widely expected to be upbeat about growth. The Fed is also likely to restate its ongoing concern that price pressures, while easing, remain the primary threat to growth.

Societe Generale strategists, however, fear things will fail to go the Treasury markets way. "We maintain a near bearish bias for bonds under the deluge of likely strong data," they told clients.

Japans government bonds Wednesday were bound to ranges Wednesday, ahead of an auction that will test the markets appetite for more 10-year supply.


ENERGY:

Oil prices fell Wednesday as traders adjusted positions after large gains the day before and awaited the weekly U.S. inventories report, which was expected to show an increase of gasoline stockpiles but a fall in distillates such as heating oil. Nymex March crude fell 42 cents to $56.55 in Asia.

Oil and natural gas prices jumped Tuesday on expectations of more cold weather in the United States and renewed concerns about OPEC production cuts. Oil traded as high as $57.05 before falling back to settle at $56.97 a barrel, for a gain of $2.96, or 5%.


METALS:

Spot gold is marking time before the FOMC statement later Wednesday, with market talk suggesting some Fed members might take a more hawkish stance on inflation, says James Steel at HSBC.

That would spell negative implications for gold, though more emphasis on a hawkish inflation outlook could also be already priced in. Spot gold last traded at $645.80/oz, up $0.90 on the New York close.

LME copper only got a small bounce on news that BHP Billitons Cerro Colorado mine workers have voted in favor of strike. The labor strife was expected at the mine, which produced just over 90,000 tons last year. LME 3-month copper was last at $5,690/ton, up $51 on Tuesdays PM kerb.



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

January 31, 2007 01:45 ET (06:45 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


31 Jan 2007 06:45 GMT =DJ EUROPEAN MORNING BRIEFING: Stocks Flat;Fed Outlook Key-2


CALENDAR: Wednesday, January 31, 2007

GMT Expected Previous
0700 GER Dec Labor Market Statistics
0700 GER Dec Retail Trade +1.4%MM -0.7%MM
0745 FRA Jan Consumer Confidence Survey -25 -26
0745 FRA Dec Unemployment 8.7% 8.7%
-20K -26K
0750 FRA Dec PPI +0.1%MM -0.1%MM
+2.8%YY +2.6%YY
0855 GER Jan Unemployment Change -40K -108K
0855 GER Jan Unemployment Rate 9.7% 9.8%
0900 ITA Dec PPI +0.1%MM +0.1%MM
+5.1%YY +5.3%YY
0930 UK Nov Scottish Farm Incomes, final estimate
1000 EU Jan Business & Consumer Surveys +5 MM +6 MM
-7 YY -6 YY
1000 EU Jan Business climate indicator for the euro 109.7 110.1
area
1000 EU Dec Unemployment 7.6% 7.6%
1000 EU Jan Euro-zone Inflation, flash estimate +2.1%YY +1.9%YY
1015 EU ECB allocates bids on long-term refi
ops
1030 UK Jan Consumer Confidence Survey -9 -8
1200 US Jan 26 MBA Refinancing Index -9.6%
1315 US Jan ADP/Macroeconomic Advisors Employment +167K
Estimate
1330 US 4Q GDP, advance +3.0% +2.0%
1330 US 4Q Employment Cost Index +1.0% +1.0%
1400 US Tsy refunding announcement
1500 US Tsy Secy Paulson testifies before U.S.
Senate Banking panel on intl economic
and exchange rate policy in Washington
1500 US Tsy Asst Secy Ryan, Dep Asst Secy
Abbott hold Treasury refunding press
conference
1500 US Jan Chicago PMI 52.0 51.6
1500 US Dec Construction Spending unch -0.2%
1530 US Jan 26 US Energy Dept Crude Oil Stocks (in +1.2M +700,000
barrels)
1530 US Jan 26 US Energy Dept Distillate Stocks (in -2.1M +4M
barrels)
1530 US Jan 26 US Energy Dept Gasoline Stocks (in +1.6M +700,000
barrels)
1600 US Pres Bush speaks on the economy in New
York
N/A US Two-day FOMC meeting continues;
interest rate decision expected about
2:15 p.m. EST
N/A UK 2H CML Arrears & Possessions Figures
N/A JPN Dec Provisional Labor Survey
N/A UK Quarterly review of the UK economy

-By Dennis Baker; Dow Jones Newswires; dennis.baker@dowjones.com


(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

January 31, 2007 01:45 ET (06:45 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


31 Jan 2007 06:45 GMT =DJ EUROPEAN MORNING BRIEFING: Corporate Events

Areva (427583.FR): FY Revenue
Average revenue (DJ, 3 analysts): EUR10.9B (EUR10.125B)
Note: The nuclear business is expected to report 4.3% growth to EUR7.2B from EUR6.9B, fueled by the front end unit. Analysts are expecting more details on the troubled building of the EPR in Finland and an update on prospects in China.


Basilea (BSLN.EB): FY Earnings
Average net loss (DJ, 3 analysts): CHF83.9M (CHF49.6M)
Note: Net loss for 2006 is widening from a year earlier, due to higher development costs, according to the estimates from three analysts. R&D spending is expected to have risen to CHF81.2M from CHF72.4M. Phase III testing of alitretinoin and isavuconazole seen accounting for much of the 2006 spending. Results due around 0615 GMT.


BBVA (BBV): 4Q & FY Earnings
Average 4Q net profit (DJ, 10 analysts): EUR200.3M (EUR1.08B)
Average 4Q net interest income: EUR2.25B (EUR2.0B)
Average FY net profit: EUR4.63B (EUR3.81B)
Average FY net interest income: EUR8.32B (EUR7.21B)
Note: 4Q net profit -81% from a year earlier, hurt by early retirement and tax charges. Fundamental strength is set to continue, with 4Q net interest income seen +13%. FY 06 net profit seen +22%, with NII expected +15%. Spanish retail business seen gaining momentum, while Mexico will continue its strong trend, analysts say. Provisions also seen rising significantly. Report due premarket.


British Sky Broadcasting Group (BSY): 1H Earnings
Average EBIT (Co, 6 analysts): GBP327M (GBP414M)
Average pretax profit: GBP287M (GBP390M)
Average revenue: GBP2.222B (GBP2.136B)
Note: Sharply reduced profits are expected, due to the start-up costs involved in launching Sky Broadband in 2006. 2Q net subscriber additions seen at an average of 191,000, -12% from 215,000 in 2Q 06. Net new broadband customers seen between 120,000 and 180,000 at the 2Q point, according to the average of 3 analysts estimates gathered by Dow Jones . Analysts will be looking for guidance on sales of the new broadband product and will be asking for signs of its impact on customer churn.


Bulgari (BUL.MI): 4Q & FY Revenue
Average 4Q revenue (DJ, 7 analysts): EUR333.6M (EUR311.4M)
Average FY revenue: EUR1.02B (EUR919M)
Note: Against a tough comparison period, revenue growth in jewelry and watches is likely to be outshone by that in perfumes and accessories, which should be boosted by new product and development of accessories-only stores. Full-year revenue seen growing 10%. Key points to look for include any update on guidance for 06 earnings, considered by many analysts to be cautious, and for 07 profits. Also of interest would be any update on plans for accessories-only stores and skincare products, while any forecasts for Japan, a key market for Bulgari, would also grab the eye. Numbers due after the close Tuesday.


Danske Bank (DANSKE.KO): 4Q & FY Earnings
Average net profit (SME Direkt, 17 analysts): DKK3.38B (DKK3.73B)
Average pretax profit: DKK4.69B (DKK5.02B)
Note: 4Q net profit has a drop of 9.4% from a year earlier. The drop reflects very strong equity gains in the year earlier period, says Claus Hoejmark Jensen, an analyst with Jyske Bank, who expects very strong results from Danske on the back of favorable economic conditions and strong equity markets. Danskes 4Q pretax profit is expected to drop 6.5%, year on year, again reflecting the exceptionally strong year ago period. Jensen says eyes are on 07 outlook and the impact of upcoming wage negotiations, and on the slowdown in housing market. Says its probably too early to get news on Sampo bank, which Danske agreed to acquire in November. Expects good news on the integration of Irish units.


Fortum (FUM1V.HE): 4Q Earnings
Average net profit (SME Direkt, 21 analysts): EUR328.7M (EUR320M)
Average revenue: EUR1.301B (EUR1.11B)
Note: 4Q net profit of +2.7% from a year earlier, on higher electricity prices. Higher average prices are seen boosting 4Q revenue in 4Q 05, but both profits and revenue are expected to be kept grounded on lower demand and margins. Warmer temperatures in the region during the quarter are seen hurting consumption, while lower production of higher margin nuclear power due to a reactor shutdown in Sweden will cut into profits. Eyes will be on any extra dividend communication from the company. Data due Wednesday at 0700 GMT.


Friends Providents (FP.LN): 4Q & FY New Business
Average 4Q new business (Co, 14 analysts): GBP1.0B (GBP918M)
Average FY new business: GBP4.0B (GBP3.2B)
Note: 4Q 06 UK life and pensions new business seen +8.9% present value of new business premiums from GBP918M in 4Q 05, as the effects of A-Day bubble starts to work its way through the system. FY 06 UK Life & Pensions new business seen +25%. FY group L&P +29% at just under GBP7B from GBP5.4B. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods forecasts 4Q 06 international L&P revenue +13% at GBP1.3B, with the seasonality of Lombard revenue coming through.


Heidelberger Druck (HDD.XE): 3Q Earnings
Average net profit (DJ, 9 analysts): EUR118M (EUR32M)
Average pretax profit: EUR77M (EUR59M)
Average operating profit: EUR91M (EUR71M)
Note: 3Q net profit has jumped from a year earlier, due partly to a EUR70M tax refund. Order intake seen down 2.6% to EUR940M, while sales are expected to have grown 5.5% to EUR958M. However, analysts expect deceleration in order growth to continue, while profitability likely still suffers under lack of cost control, partly due to expanding R&D. 3Q operating profit seen up 27% from a year ago. Pretax profit seen at 29% higher from EUR59M. Company is expected to reaffirm FY07 goals.


Novo Nordisk (NVO): 4Q Earnings
Average net profit (SME Direkt, 26 analysts): DKK1.56B (DKK1.2B)
Average operating profit: DKK2.24B (DKK1.92B)
Average revenue: DKK10.24B (DKK9.43B)
Note: 4Q net profit of +30% from a year earlier. A DKK100M gain from the sale of its holding in Domantis, and a weak comparable quarter is seen supporting the profit growth. Revenue is expected to rise 8.6% and operating profit +17%. Focus will be on market share gains and 2007 EBIT growth guidance, previously forecast at 10%-15%.


Vivendi (12777.FR): 4Q Revenue
Average revenue (DJ, 10 analysts): EUR5.650B (EUR5.479B)
Note: Analysts expect growth to be led by revenue performance in Canal+, videogames, and Maroc Telecom, but are split on whether Vivendis two largest contributors, SFR and Universal Music, will report a rise or a drop in revenue. The company is also expected to maintain full-year guidance of an adjusted net profit of EUR2.6B, a 16% increase. Report due after market closes.


Vodafones (VOD): 3Q Earnings
Average 3Q key performance indicators (DJ, 3 analysts):
Note: 3Q key performance indicators, expected on Jan. 31, are seen generally positive, but with some revenue slippage in Spain and Germany. Subscriber net additions seen +5.6% to 7.5M from 7.1M a year earlier. However JP Morgan and Lehman Brothers are more bullish forecasting 8.35M and 8.43M net adds respectively. Analysts will seek an update on Vodafones fast growing, emerging markets business unit and its bid for Hutchison Essar.



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

January 31, 2007 01:45 ET (06:45 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


31 Jan 2007 06:45 GMT =DJ EUROPEAN MORNING BRIEFING: Corporate Events -2-

OTHER SCHEDULED EVENTS:

Abacus Group (ABU.LN): AGM

Aedian (400592.FR): 2Q Revenue

Altamir (5383.FR): FY Earnings

Antofagasta (ANTO.LN): Trading Update

ATOSS Software (AOF.XE): FY Earnings

Avanquest Software (402671.FR): 4Q Revenue

Aviation Latecoere (3227.FR): 4Q Revenue

Bank of Piraeus (TPEIR.AT): FY Earnings

Brd Klee (KLEE-B.KO): AGM

BRE Bank (BRE.WA): 4Q Earnings

Britvic (BVIC.LN): AGM

Carbone-Lorraine (3962.FR): 4Q Revenue

CAST (7289.FR): FY Revenue

Christian Dior (13040.FR): FY Revenue

Dewhurst (DWHT.LN): AGM

Dimension Data Holdings (DDT.JO): AGM

Du Pareil au Meme (5364.FR): FY Revenue

Dyckerhoff (DYK.XE): FY Earnings

EDB Gruppen (EDB.KO): FY Earnings

Effnet Holding (EFFN.SK): FY Earnings

Elanders (ELAN-B.SK): FY Earnings

eQ Corporation (EQO1V.HE): FY Earnings

Finsbury Growth & Income Trust (FGT.LN): AGM

FormPipe AB BT (FPIP.SK): FY Earnings

Fountains (FNT.LN): Trading Update

Generix (403279.FR): 4Q Revenue

Ginger (4502.FR): FY Revenue

Guillemot Corporation (6672.FR): FY Revenue

Hawesko Holding (HAW.XE): FY Earnings

High Co (5423.FR): 4Q Revenue

Highlight Communications (HLG.XE): 4Q Earnings

HiQ International (HIQ.SK): FY Earnings

Hubwoo.com (405256.FR): 4Q Revenue

IB Group (405153.FR): 3Q Revenue

Infotel (7179.FR): FY Revenue

ITM Power (ITM.LN): 1H Earnings

Kauno Energija (12301.LH): FY Earnings

Nexans (444.FR): FY Earnings

Nolato (NOLA-B.SK): FY Earnings

Norbert Dentressangle (5287.FR): FY Revenue

Norddeutsche Affinerie (NDA.XE): 1Q Earnings

NWF Group (NWF.LN): 1H Earnings

Optos (OPTS.LN): AGM

Paris Orleans (3168.FR): 1H Earnings

PartyGaming (PRTY.LN): Trading Update

Salling Bank (SALB.KO): FY Earnings

Sardus (SARD.SK): FY Earnings

Schuitema (38304.AE): 4Q Earnings

Skiens Aktiemolle (SKI.OS): 4Q Earnings

Stanelco (SEO.LN): Trading Update

Stork (39066.AE): FY Earnings

Systar (5285.FR): 1H Revenue

Tallinna Vesi (TVEAT.ET): FY Earnings

Trader Classified Media (5729.FR): 4Q Revenue

Tullow Oil (TLW.LN): Trading Update

Turkistuottajat (TURCS.HE): 1Q Earnings

Viel & Cie (5004.FR): FY Revenue

VMetro (VME.OS): 4Q Earnings

William Morrison Supermarkets (MRW.LN): Restatement of Earnings

Wolfson Microelectronics (WLF.LN): FY Earnings


(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

January 31, 2007 01:45 ET (06:45 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


31 Jan 2007 06:45 GMT =DJ EUROPEAN MORNING BRIEFING: Div Payments & Ex Div Dates

Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN.LN): FY 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Alliance Trust (ATST.LN): 3Q 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Blacks Leisure Group (BSLA.LN): 1H 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Carpetright (CPR.LN): 1H 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

Computerland UK (CPU.LN): 1H 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

Dunedin Enterprise IT (DNE.LN): 1H 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Edinburgh Investment Trust (EDIN.LN): 1H 2007 Ex-Dividend Date

Electric & General Investment (ENG.LN): 1H 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

EOG Resources (EOG): 4Q 2006 Dividend Payment Date

FKI (FKI.LN): 1H 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

Fletcher King (FLK.LN): 1H 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

Future (FUTR.LN): FY 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Gartmore European Investment (GEO.LN): FY 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Glasgow Income Trust (GLS.LN): 1Q 2007 Dividend Payment Date

Henderson High Income Trust (HHI.LN): 3Q 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Iberpapel (IBG.MC): 1H 2006 Dividend Payment Date

IG Group Holdings (IGG.LN): 1H 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

Invista Foundation Property (IFD.LN): 1H 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

ITE Group (ITE.LN): FY 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

Latchways (LTC.LN): 1H 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

Mapeley (MAY.LN): 4Q 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

Metrovacesa (MVC.MC): 1H 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Micro Focus International (MCRO.LN): 1H 2006 Dividend Payment Date
Monks Investment Trust (MNKS.LN): 1H 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Morant Wright Japan Income (MWJ.LN): 2Q 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

New City High Yield Trust (NCY.LN): 2Q 2007 Ex-Dividend Date

New Star Financial (NST.LN): 4Q 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Prem UK Dual Return Trust Inc (PUKC.LN): 4Q 2006 Dividend Payment Date

ProSafe (PRS.OS): Special Dividend Payment Date

Schroder Income Growth Fund (SCF.LN): 1Q 2007 Dividend Payment Date

Schroder UK Growth Fund (SDU.LN): 1H 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Shires Income (SHRS.LN): 2Q 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Shires Smaller Cos (SHD.LN): 4Q 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Smith (DS) (SMDS.LN): 1H 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

SSL International (SSL.LN): 1H 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

Titon Holdings (TON.LN): FY 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

Topps Tiles (TPT.LN): FY 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Treatt (TET.LN): FY 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

UK Balanced Property Trust (UBR.LN): 3Q 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Vega Group (VEG.LN): 1H 2007 Ex-Dividend Date

Victrex (VCT.LN): FY 2006 Ex-Dividend Date

Wolverhampton & Dudley: FY 2006 Dividend Payment Date


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 31, 2007 01:45 ET (06:45 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.