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Hitt og þetta 19. september 2006

DJ EUROPEAN MORNING BRIEFING: Stocks On Hold For Fed, Data

US SUMMARY: Stocks Mixed As Oil Rebounds

DJIA 11555.00 loss 5.77 dn 0.1%
NASDAQ 2235.75 gain 0.16 up 0.01%
S&P 500 1321.18 gain 1.31 up 0.1%
Dow Future 11639.00 loss 10.00 dn 0.1%
NASDAQ Future 1652.00 loss 0.50 0.0%
S&P Future 1332.75 loss 1.50 dn 0.1%
Euro-USD 1.2716 gain 0.0008 up 0.06%
10-Yr US Treasury: 4.81% up 0.01
(Futures values, Treasury, EUR/USD Data as of 0450 GMT)
Stocks gave up a moderate early advance to close barely changed Monday after oil prices rebounded from their recent decline. The dollar was mixed and Treasurys lower.

STOCKS: Many investors stuck to the sidelines to wait for Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting on interest rate policy. Wall Street had been flirting with 2006 highs, but the market remains anxious about the possibility the Fed could raise its benchmark short-term rate, which is now at 5.25 percent. Readings of economic growth and inflation remain mixed; the rise in oil carries with it concerns that inflation will accelerate.

The energy and materials sectors were the day's winners.

The day's economic news was cheerless. The U.S. current account deficit rose 2.4% to $218.4 billion in the second quarter from the first quarter.

"The market is looking ahead to slower economic growth, but not necessarily negative growth," said Peter Cardillo, chief strategist, senior vice president and market analyst, S.W. Bach & Co.

In corporate news, aborted talks between General Motors and Ford about a possible alliance demonstrate the sweeping changes in the global auto industry and the once-unthinkable alternatives Detroit's traditional giants are willing to consider to stay competitive.

DaimlerChrysler's Chrysler Group will cut production through the end of the year even further than it initially projected, a Chrysler spokesman said Monday.

FOREX: The dollar starts narrowly mixed after it gained against the yen, but fell against European currencies on poor capital inflows data. Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities fell to $32.9 billion in July, less than the $68.04 billion U.S. trade deficit for the month.

The market is now awaiting data on August producer prices and housing starts, both due Tuesday.

BONDS: U.S. Treasury bond prices fell Monday. Analysts said a continued flow of corporate deals will continue to affect trade, as investors consolidate gains garnered over the last few weeks.

Kevin Giddis, managing director of fixed income at Morgan Keegan & Co., said the market needs data to show a consistently weaker economy in order to truly rally.

Assuming a weaker PPI figure on Tuesday, and no change in the federal funds rate on Wednesday, "bonds will still have a hard time rallying from here given the strength of the U.S. economy," Giddis said.

"To 'go the distance,' the economy needs to run off a series of weaker than expected numbers for three months in a row for the Fed to consider lowering interest rates," said Giddis.

Carl Lantz, fixed income strategist at Credit Suisse in New York, expects further consolidation this week, as "the market has been going pretty far pretty fast," he said. "It makes sense to consolidate some of these gains," Giddis said.

Tuesday's producer price index is expected to rise by 0.2% versus the previous 0.1% hike.

OIL: Crude futures rose 47 cents Monday to $63.80 in a modest rally spurred by renewed jitters about the Iran nuclear standoff and a delay in a long-awaited Gulf of Mexico production project by BP.

Amaranth Advisors, a multibillion-dollar hedge fund, is likely to have more than $2 billion in losses after a fall in volatile natural gas futures last week.

ASIAN SUMMARY: Weaker Yen Drives Japan Export Shares Up

USD-Yen 117.86 loss 0.08 dn 0.07%
AUD-USD 0.7560 gain 0.0002 up 0.01%
Nikkei 225 15993.10 gain 126.10 up 0.8%
Hang Seng 17394.83 gain 7.62 0.0%
S&P/ASX 200 5034.30 gain 5.60 up 0.1%
Taiwan Index 6896.73 gain 14.25 up 0.2%
S.Korea Kospi 1373.13 loss 117.00 dn 0.1%
JGB Yield 1.6950% up 0.0400
(All values as of 0450 GMT)
STOCKS: Japanese stocks caught up with gains Tuesday following a national holiday, as a soft yen helped exporters including Toyota Motor and Nintendo, while other regional markets registered little movement.

FOREX: The yen rebounded from earlier losses against the dollar and euro that came after Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said there were no specific talks about recent euro/yen rates at the G7 meetings last weekend. The dollar has resistance at Y118.20 and the euro at Y150.40.

BONDS: Foreign investors sold off Japan's government bonds, shifting into stocks. Local investors stuck to the sidelines ahead of the Fed's meeting Wednesday.

OIL: October Nymex crude was up around 20 cents at $64 on the BP field delay in the Gulf of Mexico. Still, the rise is likely to remain modest, as traders expect a crude demand slowdown "given high heating oil stocks in the U.S. amid gasoline demand peaking out," says Kichi Murakami with Daiichi Shohin in Tokyo.

METALS: Spot gold traded slightly lower at $585.77, after running into selling pressure toward $592 resistance. Sellers now may be targeting $562, dealers say. Copper futures were steady.

OTHER NEWS: U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson arrives in China for a visit that is expected to include talks on Washington's appeals for a stronger Chinese currency.

EUROPEAN OUTLOOK: Wary Investors To Keep Shares Flat

Euro-USD 1.2716 gain 0.0008 up 0.06%
Stlg-USD 1.8817 gain 0.0015 up 0.08%
USD-Franc 1.2502 loss 0.0002 dn 0.02%
(All values as of 0450 GMT)
Equities in Europe along with government debt will struggle at the open, while the euro ticks higher.

STOCKS: European markets are set for a benign start, with upcoming U.S. economic data and the all-important Fed meeting weighing on investors' minds.

U.K. spreadbettor GFT Global Markets is calling the FTSE down 2 points at 5888, the DAX down 1 at 5925, and the CAC up 3 at 5149.

Investors could change their current defensive stance if companies put in a strong third-quarter earnings season, according to some strategists.

"We expect the third quarter of 2006 to be the first quarter in four years where the five-year record of equities in Europe shows a positive return... this could be the trigger for a profound reaction against the extreme defensiveness of investors at present," said equity strategists at ING.

European shares traded mixed on Monday as gains from commodity stocks underpinned indexes under pressure from vehicle stocks such as Man.

FOREX: The euro is higher against the dollar, but is giving back earlier gains against the yen. Steve Barrow, chief currency strategist at Bear Stearns in London, said the lack of any real decline in euro-yen after the G7 meetings "may be a signal that there's lots more upside momentum in euro-yen yet."

BONDS: Euro-zone bonds may try a feeble technical bounce Tuesday with negative underlying factors intact, while gilts remain under pressure. German producer inflation and ZEW economic sentiment data highlight the session.

Audrey Childe-Freeman, chief European economist at CIBC World Markets, said nervousness ahead of the Fed meeting Wednesday had put fixed-income markets on both sides of the Atlantic on a negative footing. And a more hawkish stance by ECB officials is adding to the negative mood in bonds, she said.

"The message the ECB wants to convey is that interest rates are going up this year and, most importantly, beyond 2006," Childe-Freeman said.

The current language of the ECB is therefore likely to amplify the recent flattening trend, with shorter maturity government bond prices likely to head lower, Childe-Freeman said.

The yield differential between two-year and 10-year German bonds currently stands at 15 basis points, and is likely to narrow to zero, she added.

Cyril Beuzit, head of interest rate strategy at BNP Paribas in London, expects the yield differential between two-year and five-year German bonds "will enter negative territory soon."

European government bond prices were broadly lower Monday, in line with U.S. Treasurys, with short-dated issues bearing the brunt of assorted hawkish comments from European Central Bank officials.

CALENDAR: Tuesday, Sep 19: German PPI, ZEW; US PPI

GMT Expected Previous
0600 GER Aug PPI +0.1%MM +0.5%MM
+5.8%YY +6.0%YY
0645 FRA Jul Current Account -0.8B
0645 FRA Jul Balance of Payments
0830 UK Aug Producer Price
0900 EU Sep Euro Zone ZEW Survey
0900 GER Sep ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment -9.0 -5.6
1145 US Sep 16 ICSC Store Sales Index -0.3%
1230 US Aug Housing Starts -2.5%
1230 US Aug PPI +0.2% +0.1%
1230 US Aug PPI, ex-food and energy +0.2% -0.3%
1255 US Sep 16 Redbook Retail Sales Index Unch
1315 US Pres Bush, French Pres Chirac meet, New York
1415 US Pres Bush, UN Secretary Gen Annan meet, New York
1530 US Pres Bush addresses UN General Assembly, New York
1800 US Tsy Dep Secy Kimmitt attends Financial
Literacy and Education Commission meeting, Washington
1930 US Pres Bush, Iraqi Pres Talabani meet in New York
2100 US Sep 17 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence -13
Index

-By Dennis Baker; Dow Jones Newswires; dennis.baker@dowjones.com

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

September 19, 2006 01:45 ET (05:45 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


19 Sep 2006 05:45 GMT =DJ EUROPEAN MORNING BRIEFING: Corporate Events

Danisco (DCO.KO): 1Q Earnings
Average net profit (DJ, 5 analysts): DKK313M (DKK268M)
Average EBIT: DKK585M (DKK491M)
Average total revenue: DKK5.191B (DKK5.162B)
Note: Net profit rise supported by steady sales growth and improved margins in the Ingredients business. However, the Sugar division is expected to report a continuous decline in sales as a result of the EU sugar reform. Total revenue is seen rising 0.6% from 1Q '04 and EBIT is expected to rise +19%. Eyes are on margins in Ingredients and management comments about the development of the Flavors business. Report due at 1000 GMT.


Independent News & Media (INWS.DB): 1H Earnings
Average adjusted EPS (DJ, 4 analysts): 7.5c (6.71c)
Note: "UK profits are recovering, but the advertising market remains weak," says Davy Stockbrokers, which doesn't rate the shares. "Growth in advertising revenues in Ireland is expected to accelerate."


Kazakhmys (KAZ.LN): 1H Earnings
Average net profit (Co, 5 analysts): $576M (N/A)
Note: This is the first set of interim results the company has reported since its initial public offering. Credit Suisse estimates Kazakhmys' net profit in 1H '05 was $242M, which would see net profit more than double. The gain is seen on flat copper production, higher copper price and higher zinc output and prices. Market watching for news on acquisitions and expansion opportunities. Report due at 0600 GMT.


Venture Production (VPC.OF): 1H Earnings
Average pretax profit (DJ, 3 analysts): GBP95.3M (GBP5.9M loss)
Average profit after tax: GBP55.8M (N/A)
Average EPS: 43.9p (N/A)
Note: Growth pinned on strong production growth and high commodity prices. Analysts will await updates on the recent acquisition of North Sea CH4 assets, and placed assets in the 'North Sea Gas Partners' venture established earlier this year.


OTHER SCHEDULED EVENTS:

Affine (3610.FR): 1H Analyst Meeting

Arbuthnot Banking Group (ARBB.LN): 1H Earnings

ArmorGroup International (ARG.LN): 1H Earnings

Bank of Ireland (BKIR.DB): Trading Update

BKW FMB Energie (BKWN.EB): 1H Earnings

Bloomsbury Publishing (BMY.LN): 1H Earnings

Centrale del Latte di Torino (CLT.MI): 1H Earnings

Cermaq (CEQ.OS): EGM

Clearspeed Technology (CSD.LN): 1H Earnings

Compel Group (CGR.LN): FY Earnings

Corac (CRA.LN): 1H Earnings

Development Securities (DSC.LN): 1H Earnings

Evialis (5440.FR): 1H Earnings

Faiveley (5314.FR): AGM

Fimalac (3794.FR): 1H Earnings

First Property Group (FPO.LN): AGM

Foncia Groupe (5219.FR): 1H Earnings

Hologram Industries (6212.FR): 1H Earnings

Ipsos (7329.FR): 1H Earnings

Jet Multimedia (5345.FR): 1H Earnings

Linedata Services (415629.FR): 1H Earnings

M.P. Evans Group (MPE.LN): 1H Earnings

Manitou BF (3860.FR): 1H Earnings

NRJ Group (12169.FR): 1H Earnings

Oasis Healthcare (OSH.LN): AGM

Orca Interactive (ORCA.LN): 1H Earnings

Pharmagest Interactive (7768.FR): 1H Earnings

Compagnie Plastic Omnium (12457.FR): 1H Earnings

Quadnetics Group (QDG.LN): FY Earnings

Renold (RNO.LN): AGM

Seche Environnement (3910.FR): 1H Earnings

Sportech (SPO.LN): 1H Earnings

Stedim (5326.FR): 1H Earnings

Stering Energy (SEY.LN): 1H Earnings

Strathdon Investments (STV.LN): AGM

SVG Capital (SVI.LN): 1H Earnings

Teamlog (6496.FR): 1H Earnings

Tenon Group (TNO.LN): FY Earnings

Trafficmaster (TFC.LN): 1H Earnings

Ultimate Leisure Group (ULG.LN): FY Earnings

Unilabs (ULB.EB): FY Earnings

Viborg Haandbold Klub B (VIBHK.KO): AGM


(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

September 19, 2006 01:45 ET (05:45 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


19 Sep 2006 05:45 GMT =DJ EUROPEAN MORNING BRIEFING: Div Payments & Ex Div Dates

DS Smith (SMDS.LN): FY 2005 Dividend Payment Date

Helphire Group (HHR.LN): 2Q 2006 Dividend Payment Date

Lookers (LOOK.LN): 1H 2006 Ex-Dividend Payment Date

Vega Group (VEG.LN): FY 2006 Dividend Payment Date


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 19, 2006 01:45 ET (05:45 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.