Hitt og þetta 11. desember 2006

DJ KEY CEE DATA:CPI Rises Seen In Hungary, Poland, Slovakia

By Margit Feher and David McQuaid


BUDAPEST (Dow Jones)--Inflation data in Hungary, Poland and Slovakia due next week are to show that consumer prices are rising slightly in Central and Eastern Europe.

In Hungary, Novembers inflation reading, due Tuesday, will be closely watched after the price jumps on fiscal measures taken in October and September. The rise in the annual headline reading is forecast to be moderate this month, to 6.4% from Septembers 6.3%. That will be mostly due to a base effect - last Novembers figure was low at 3.3%, as large department store and supermarket chains cut their prices in advance of the January 2006 cut in value added tax.

Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.3% on the month, compared withs the rises of 0.5% in October and 2.5% in September, since the governments fiscal austerity measures, which came mostly in the form of tax and utility price hikes, are still to boost some prices such as district heating charges.

Otherwise, "inflation is getting temporarily back to its normal, moderate course. Food and services prices will be behind inflation," said Orsolya Nyeste at Erste Bank.

Core inflation, which is inflation excluding certain volatile energy and food prices, will be eyed as a key piece of data for monetary policy. Most analysts dont forecast core inflation but those who do see it at around 4% in November versus Octobers 4.4%. However, core inflation will rise to 7% in the first six months of 2007, according to Gyozo Eppich at OTP Bank.

Already announced January hikes in utility, natural gas and public transport prices are to boost headline inflation, too, in the coming months, to around 8% in the first quarter of next year.

In Poland, the key indicator in a busy data week is November consumer prices, due Thursday. Annual inflation is seen rising to 1.5%, from Octobers 1.2%, according to a Dow Jones survey of nine bank economists.

The November data mark the start of a long-anticipated uptick that should lift Polands ultra-low inflation rate close to the central banks target of 2.5% by March 2007. Not coincidentally, thats the month when six out of the nine economists predict Polands central bank will begin tightening rates.

Rising inflation is mainly a byproduct of low year-earlier inflation, due in part to a Russian ban on Polish meat imports that sent food prices into a tailspin.

But economists now think the inflation rebound could be less than feared as falling world commodity prices have come to the rescue, buffering the "base effect" from last year.

"The inflation outlook has been improved by lower oil and metals prices, but even if we had an upside surprise, the central bank has never raised rates at a December meeting," said economist Marcin Mrowiec of BPH Bank in Warsaw.

Slovakias November inflation data, due Monday, will be on the center stage next week, as investors will look for assurances that the country is coming closer to meeting the euro zone accession inflation criteria. A poll of seven analysts by Dow Jones showed that annual inflation accelerated slightly in November to 3.9% from 3.7%.

"Its due largely to a one-off effect, to the increase in regulated prices of natural gas and heating for households," said Eduard Hagara, an analyst at ING Bank in Bratislava.

Hagara and other analysts say Novembers inflation increase will wear off in the following months.

"I see very little risk of not meeting the (euro zone) inflationary criteria," Hagara said.

On Friday, the Slovak Statistics Office will publish the European Union-harmonized index of consumer prices, or HICP, for November. Analysts expect HICP at 3.5% on the year, up from 3.1% in October, also due to increases in regulated utilities charges. ING Banks Hagara expects the countrys HICP indicator to hover at 1.8% on the year at the end of 2007.

In Prague, analysts see industrial output up 9.8% on the year in October, citing two extra working days in October 2006 compared with 2005 as the main contributor when compared with an annual rise of 5.8% in September.

"Car manufacturing should post excellent growth, though moving forward, other technology segments will contribute more to industrial output," said economist David Navratil of Ceska Sporitelna in Prague.

Date GMT Country Indicator Period Forecast Previous
Dec 11 0800 SLV CPI Nov +3.9%YY(7) +3.7%YY
Dec 12 0800 HUN CPI Nov +6.4%YY(13) +6.3%YY
Dec 12 0800 SLV Trade Deficit Oct SKK4.9B(7) SKK9.5B
Dec 12 0800 CZE Indus Output Oct +9.8%YY(7) +5.8%YY
Dec 12 1100 HUN 3-Mo T-Bill Tender N/A 8.02%*
Dec 12 1100 HUN 2-Wk Deposits N/A HUF588.3B
Dec 12 1300 POL Current Acct Oct -EUR233M(9) +EUR195M
Dec 12 1300 POL Foreign Trade Oct -EUR139M(9) -EUR299M
Dec 13 0800 SLV Retail Sales Oct +8.9%YY(5) +10.6%YY
Dec 13 0800 SLV Wages Oct N/A +6.3%YY
Dec 13 0900 CZE Curr Acct Oct -CZK10.1B(7)-CZK13.9B
Dec 13 1100 HUN 6-Mo T-Bill Tender N/A 8.17%*
Dec 13 1430 HUN Tsy Schedule NextWk N/A HUF95B
Dec 13 N/A CZE 3-Yr Bond Tender N/A 3.357%*
Dec 14 0800 CZE PPI Nov +2.1%YY(7) +1.9%YY
Dec 14 1100 HUN 12-Mo T-Bill Tender N/A 8.25%*
Dec 14 1300 POL CPI Nov +1.5%YY(9) +1.2%YY
Dec 14 1300 POL M3 Nov +0.2%MM(9) +1.3%MM
Dec 15 0800 HUN Indus Output Oct +10.6%** +11.8%YY
Dec 15 0800 SLV Jobless Nov +9.30%(6) +9.27%
Dec 15 0800 SLV HICP Nov +3.5%YY(5) +3.1%YY
Dec 15 1300 POL Avg Wages Nov +3.8%YY(9) +4.7%YY
Dec 15 1300 POL Employment Nov +3.7%YY(8) +3.6%YY
Dec 15 N/A POL Budget Deficit JanNov PLN18.63B** PLN16.62B
Numbers in brackets indicate the number of analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.
N/A indicates "not available" or "not applicable." Some amounts denoted as previous are rounded.
* - Average auction yield.
** - Preliminary data from statistics office or finance ministry, not analyst forecast.
-By Margit Feher, Dow Jones Newswires; +361-267-0622; margit.feher@dowjones.com (Leos Rousek and Sean Carney in Prague and Malgorzata Halaba in Warsaw contributed to this report.)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 11, 2006 01:45 ET (06:45 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.